Concordia University St. Paul Athletics

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ST. PAUL, Minn. - This Thursday, Concordia-St. Paul baseball opens the 2013 season against Northern State with a doubleheader at Metrodome with a 10:45 a.m. first pitch. The Golden Bears play at the dome again on Sunday against Augustana at 3:30 p.m.

Concordia is 41-7 against Northern State since Concordia joined the NSIC in 2000. Concordia is 4-0 against the Wolves at Metrodome, as the teams played doubleheaders in 2009 and in 2010. Last year, NSU snapped Concordia's 7-game winning streak in the series by winning game two of the doubleheader in Aberdeen, S.D. Concordia is 15-2 against NSU dating back to the season finale on May 4, 2008.

Concordia is 2-11 against the Vikings in Concordia's Division II era (2000-present) and 2-10 against Augie since the Vikings joined the Northern Sun. The teams have only completed one game at Metrodome, in their first-ever meeting which was February 11, 2007, a 4-2 win for Augustana.

2013 SEASON PREVIEW

GOLDEN BEARS PLAYING MONEYBALL IN 2013
Concordia baseball moves on to the 2013 season with a gaping hole in the third spot in the lineup vacated by the graduation and drafting of NCAA batting champion Bryan Lippincott. A 4.0 student-athlete and a consensus All-America selection, the loss of Lippincott will be obvious but his mark has been forever placed on the Golden Bear program.

By now, most baseball fans have read or watched Moneyball, which was crafted on the strategy of a small market Major League franchise that was able to compete at the highest levels despite major financial disparities in the game.

While many franchises, colleges and other baseball clubs have since adopted a Moneyball mindset in the decade-plus following the release of the successful book, the ways in which each team have applied the concepts have varied and even changed over time – even with the franchise the book was tailored to: the Oakland Athletics.

But one of the main concepts by Oakland's general manager Billy Beane was to not focus on replacing a superstar with a superstar, but rather to replace the aggregate of all of the departed players with a statistically equal aggregate of new players.

In the case of the Golden Bear baseball club, Lippincott is one of nine players to leave the program. The 2013 Golden Bears bring 17 new faces to the mix. It may just take a near 2-to-1 ratio of newcomers to fill in the kind of presence that Lippincott provided.

But the aura of the team in mid-January after the first few days of practice doesn't have a hint of pessimism or uncertainty around losing an All-American. It's quite the opposite in the early stages, in fact.

Head coach Mark “Lunch” McKenzie, closing in on 300 career wins entering his 14th season (13 shy), has faced replacing All-Americans and the super-productive many times in his tenure. But each year is different and he indicated that the culture changed starting during the team's fall practice season.

“You can't replace the national batting champion with one guy,” said McKenzie. “But with losing nine and adding 17 we are still hoping to be better as a sum, and having the kind of legacy that Bryan left here still be a presence in the clubhouse goes a long ways, especially for all of these young guys. Lippy is still around, still a presence, and the younger guys see what he did as a student, as a citizen, in his workouts, and as a ballplayer.”

The transition started during the fall when the 16 returners and 17 newcomers took the field together for the first time.

“Fall ball was upbeat,” said McKenzie. “We have a dynamic mix of new guys and experienced returners and the upperclassmen were genuinely excited that the new guys coming in are here to help us win now and they outwardly recognized that. The team dynamics appear to be different than it's been in the past and it comes down to how we will attain our goal.”

McKenzie indirectly pointed to some of the Moneyball concepts during a January practice, “Last year we hit 22 home runs as a team, and 10 of them were one guy (Lippincott). That's not our game. We are emphasizing protecting every single run we can, and scrapping out runs every way we can do it.”

The idea is to avoid the reliance on a big inning, and to minimize another team's ability to scratch out a big inning against them. “We have to prepare to win 2-to-1 games, 4-to-3 games and let the big innings take care of themselves. We have to protect runs and understand how precious they are on both sides. Every pitch, we have to understand we have to do everything we can to score a run, and to protect a run and with every out you record you've protected a run.”

McKenzie went on to emphasize other details such as taking the extra base or hitting the cut-off man to prevent an opponent from taking the extra base and playing a more up-tempo brand of baseball.

“Get the ball, and throw the ball, having pitchers work quickly and in the strike zone to keep the defense ready,” he continued. “Additionally, we appear to have patched some defensive liabilities, we have more depth and versatility and are just looking to grind more. We're working at every aspect of the game: physical, mental and emotional fundamentals.”

“We've never emphasized it to this point as we are now. We feel we have the right guys in place to help us execute this plan.”

EXECUTING THE PLAN TO ACHIEVE THE GOAL
Having the right guys is the most important piece to what McKenzie and the staff are trying to do this season and it was intentional when McKenzie signed the 17 players that comprise over half of the current roster.

The goals are not any different than in years past. Every team enters a season with the same goal: to win a championship. There are milestones that must be reached along the way in order to achieve the dream that only one team in the nation can realize and in the Northern Sun Intercollegiate Conference, that means winning the NSIC Tournament and capturing the league's automatic bid to the NCAA Central Region Tournament.

It's the only sure path to get into the NCAA field, and it's something that Concordia and McKenzie have proven they can win. The Golden Bears captured the 2003 and 2008 NSIC Tournament titles but have since not been able to get back to the league's tournament.

“Making the NSIC Tournament is our first goal as a team. I explained to the fellas the other day that having a goal without a plan is a wish.”

He continued, “We've come up with a team plan and we are going to try to work to execute that plan. Their job as players is to buy into that plan to make it 'our' plan. It transcends the field, it goes to the classroom, being on time and being good citizens.”

The early returns have been positive, “Guys have been receptive early on. Practices have been up-beat, everything's up-tempo and there's no negativity.”

Having missed the NSIC Tournament by a mere cumulative total of a handful of outs for a string of seasons has taught the staff and the team important lessons.

“We've been using past experiences, and not just necessarily in on-field execution, but also in the mental and emotional side of dealing with the game of baseball and accepting the failures that are inevitable with the game, to teach important lessons prior to these situations that will present themselves throughout the course of a season.”

“We're spending a considerable amount of time on emotional and mental control, and in turn that will be directed at helping us execute our plan to achieve our team goal.”

A number of the positions feature competition for the starting roles, and there are a few guys that are competing at multiple positions as well as younger two-way players that will force McKenzie to alter the lineup card which opens even more in-game playing opportunities.

PITCHING STAFF
There's no spot on the team with more competition and depth than the pitching staff which features 15 arms with a good mix of established starters, returners on the cusp of earning key roles and newcomers with the ability to pitch at this level immediately.

“It's exciting, to be honest. We have so much competition for the six starting spots – it's quality competition and four of those six spots are wide open.”

The pitching staff is anchored by a pair of right handers, senior Andy Fagely (Mahtomedi, Minn.) and junior Adam Kramer (Wausau, Wis.). Fagely enters the year with 184.1 career innings over 33 appearances and 26 starts in his first three years as a Golden Bear. He's posted a 16-10 record and is coming off a career-best seven win campaign.

Kramer saw his earned run average improve by nearly six runs between his freshman and sophomore seasons as he delivered a 3.71 ERA over 60.2 innings in 2012 with 57 strikeouts, making nine starts and 11 appearances. He held opposing bats to a paltry .246 average, surrendering only four home runs over the 60-plus innings.

Both players honed their stuff over the summer in the prestigious Northwoods League. “Andy and Adam are back and are both looking good and are ready to go. Our main goal for them is to let them go out and be themselves, let them do what they do.”

Also returning and a front-runner for a starting role is senior left hander Griff Kilber (Chanhassen, Minn.), a long 6-foot, 5-inch strike thrower with a career 52-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 72.1 innings. Kilber has appeared in 30 games with seven starts in his career, and last year notched career-highs in wins, innings, strikeouts and held opponents to a .256 average. His highlight was a complete-game shutout victory at nationally-ranked Minnesota State.

Other front runners include second year returners Tyler Brekke (Lakeville, Minn.) and Nicho Roessler (St. Anthony, Minn.), both right handers. Brekke appeared in one game last year before a season-ending injury. In his lone start in Arizona, Brekke  pitched a two-hitter over 6.0 innings, allowing two runs (one earned) in a no decision against Jamestown. Roessler appeared in 10 games for the Golden Bears including one start and had 23.0 innings as a rookie including a season-high 5.0 against William Penn. He allowed just one home run to the 118 batters he faced.

It gets even more uncertain with the high-end rookies on the scene: freshman left hander Zach Rengel (Fergus Falls, Minn.) along with three right handers, transfer John Hayes (Lakeville, Minn.) and freshmen Ryan Poppitz (Plymouth, Minn.) and Yuji Suzuki (Toronto, Ontario). Hayes, a junior, transferred at the semester break from the University of St. Thomas and was a prep teammate of Brekke's.

The numbers don't add up for a consistent rotation as there are three returners and four newcomers competing for the four open starting roles behind Fagely and Kramer. But if history is any indication, nearly all of these pitchers will get a crack at a start. Each of the last four years under McKenzie, at least eight pitchers have made starts including nine during the 2010 season.

Those who aren't projected to start will be relied on to solidify the bullpen along with returning seniors Zach Goodwin (Mahtomedi, Minn.) (RHP), Patrick Rydeen (Lakeland, Minn.) (LHP), junior T.J. Obermeyer (Sergeant Bluff, Iowa) (LHP) and sophomore Adam Fredericks (Minnetonka, Minn.) (RHP). Newcomers Colton Petron (New Ulm, Minn.), a right handed transfer from Rochester Community & Technical College and freshman right hander Kyle Connelly (Zimmerman, Minn.) will also be in the mix.

In all, the Golden Bears return nearly 220 of their 357.2 innings, or 61.3% including their top two innings leaders in Fagely and Kramer. The pitching staff also returns 26 out of 46 starts on the mound.

CATCHERS
The pitchers do not have certainty in who they'll be pitching to, but they do have certainty in knowing that their backstop will be reliable behind the plate.

“We have four players competing for the starting position and it's wide open,” said McKenzie. “But I'm not afraid to put any of these guys in the game defensively right now. We'll just have to see who shows us that they can hit at this level on a consistent basis through practice and/or in-game opportunities.”

The most experienced of the group is senior Jared Kramer (Wausau, Wis.), the older brother of right hander Adam Kramer and younger brother of first year assistant coach and former Golden Bear James Kramer. Last year, he started eight games and played in 12 and hit .233 with a .400 slugging percentage in 30 at bats including a pair of doubles and a home run with six RBI, making the most of his opportunities.

The other returner vying for the gig is Conor McDougall (Victoria, B.C.) who missed the 2012 season due to injury after transferring in from Ellsworth Community College. The obvious difference between Kramer and McDougall is that they hit from opposite sides from the plate, with McDougall a left handed hitter.

The newcomers at the spot include freshman David Henke (New Berlin, Wis.), “a young player with a lot of ability who is working hard to improve every day,” and mid-semester transfer Evan Ruechel (Oconto, Wis.), a sophomore from Milwaukee Area Tech that the staff is still evaluating although “he's proven that he has the tools to compete at the position.”

“With four guys  for one spot, we have 10 weeks until conference play begins to identify who will help us win league games on a consistent basis,” McKenzie concluded.

FIRST BASE
While catcher has a wide open competition, first base features an incumbent with two years of starting experience in junior Elliot Powell (Minnetonka, Minn.). The left handed hitter has been through his ups-and-downs on the diamond as a Golden Bear, but he brings a slick glove at the position and defensive instincts that allow him to provide solid defense despite being undersized (5-11) at a position that typically features longer players. Last year, Powell hit .240 but in two years as a starter is a career .280 hitter in 232 at bats after hitting .330 as a freshman.

“Elliot appears to have the position anchored down and has been working very hard offensively and defensively with an up-beat attitude.”

Other candidates competing at the position include returners David Hines (Crystal Lake, Ill.) and T.J. Obermeyer (Sergeant Bluff, Iowa) and newcomers Trevon Bargfrede (Jackson, Minn.), a sophomore transfer along with freshman Andrew Shotwell (Eden Prairie, Minn.).

SECOND BASE
“It's not as wide open as catching, but we're still waiting to see,” said McKenzie.

As a true freshman, Kyle Dalton (Minnetonka, Minn.) was second on the team and leads all returners with a .369 average and got on base at a .430 rate. However, now a sophomore, Dalton has also spent considerable time during fall in the outfield and his bat could also play at designated hitter depending on how the rest of the positions unfold.

He's getting pushed hard by freshmen Yuji Suzuki and Alex LaPorte (Minnetonka, Minn.), but both players are also factoring in at other spots. Suzuki is also a pitcher, while LaPorte could be in the mix at either middle infield spot, as well as third base.

“Yuji and Alex gives us depth at the position that we've never had before and defensively I would not hesitate to use either of them but offensively we have to wait and see how they do. The goal is to find out who gives us our best option at defending runs, which is even more critical in the middle infield defensively.”

SHORTSTOP
While LaPorte is a strong candidate at second base, he's also in the mix at shortstop along with fellow freshman Eric Fasnacht (Eden Prairie, Minn.). Both players come from Minnetonka High School and the duo are both able to produce defensively.

“Although it appears Fasnacht has the upper-hand defensively coming out of fall ball, the next 10 weeks will give us a better gauge for what we'll do in league games and that's the theme all-around: preparing for the Northern Sun season.”

THIRD BASE
“Once again we have a competition with senior Mick Sawinski (St. Louis Park, Minn.) and freshman Ryan Poppitz profiling as the top candidates,” said McKenzie.

Sawinski has been a career reserve but has capitalized on his opportunities when he's been presented with them. In his three years, he's a .364 hitter with a .417 on base percentage and a .500 slugging percentage. Last year in 10 at bats, Sawinski delivered four hits including three doubles with four RBI with a .700 slugging percentage.

Poppitz, meanwhile, also is in the mix as a pitcher and comes to the baseball team after missing nearly all of fall ball while competing as a redshirt linebacker on the football team after signing as a two-way player out of Wayzata High School.

Also competing at third are LaPorte along with another Minnetonka graduate, Andrew Shotwell and mid-year transfer Doug Vanasek (Mendota Heights, Minn.) from St. John's University.

OUTFIELD
“We have our three starters back in the outfield and we feel it's one of the top defensive outfields around.”

The outfield is anchored by Rawlings Central Region Gold Glover Greg Larpenter (Urbandale, Iowa), a senior in centerfield. Larpenter dazzles with his ability to play with reckless abandon, diving for balls in the gap to take away extra base hits and turn them into outs. He's also solid at the plate, an unwritten requirement for a gold glover at virtually every level. As a junior transfer in 2012, Larpenter hit .322 and was second on the team with 17 doubles. He's the second leading returning hitter and is the top returner in doubles.

In right field, senior Paul Giel III (Minnetonka, Minn.) brings a similar defensive style to Larpenter and is the team's third leading returning hitter, hitting .282 with three home runs and 25 RBI last year, showing ability to get big hits in tough situations.

In left field, junior Drew Turk (Plainfield, Ill.) took hold of the job midway through the season and hit .323  while slugging .452.

There are several other guys that may receive playing time depending how the season unfolds including Kyle Dalton. "He's new to the outfield and has worked in left, but he's a guy we have to get in the lineup one way or another.”

The only other returner factoring in is T.J. Obermeyer but sophomore transfer Trevon Bargfrede along with freshmen Andrew Shotwell, Alex Eernisse (Plymouth, Minn.) and Joe Muench (Hermantown, Minn.) will all provide depth and competition.

DESIGNATED HITTER
The Golden Bears do not have a pre-determined starting DH entering the 2013 season, but with so much competition and depth around the diamond, there is not a shortage of candidates for the job. With the DH spot even more wide open than any other position, along with two-way players and multi-position players, there will be no shortage of opportunity for Concordia's depth to get on the field in varying capacities especially as different in-game situations arise.

McKenzie commented, “We have a good mix of experience and new players. We're excited to get in the Dome to start playing some games. It's going to be fun to see these young guys continue to develop while simultaneously helping us win along the way. It's a win-win situation, because they are ready to play now and they can only get better in the process.”

In addition, Concordia's coaching staff features four newcomers to go with the five returners which fit the team dynamic perfectly.

A NEW LANDSCAPE IN THE LEAGUE & REGION
The 2013 season brings a few major changes in competitive balance as Concordia continues its quest to achieve key team goals. Standing in its way are two new teams to the Northern Sun: Minot State (N.D.) University, and the University of Sioux Falls (S.D.).

Additionally, the NCAA has realigned the eight regions and after a four year run with solely the Rocky Mountain (RMAC) and NSIC comprising the six-team Central Region Tournament field, the Central Region now features the NSIC, Mid-American Athletic Association (MIAA) and Great American Conference (GAC) which mixes Northern and Southern baseball, while the Rocky Mountain has been shifted to the South Central Region. The new region features 39 baseball playing institutions and although the GAC does not yet have an auto-bid (it will in 2014), the conference consistently has NCAA Tournament caliber programs that will assuredly be a factor for an at-large berth (or multiple).

The new regional dynamic results in a shift from a 22-team region to a 39-team region which will also include more nationally-ranked programs at the top from the MIAA and GAC.

“It's going to be tough, but people have to remember that we compete in one of the best all-around conferences in Division II, arguably the best,” said McKenzie. “Yes, it's a much tougher region, and we've seen it in other sports especially in volleyball. And let's face it, Northern baseball is already at a disadvantage with weather, but we've produced the second and third-place teams in the country at the national tournament the last two years.”

McKenzie knows exactly what it takes to get in the NCAA Tournament, too. For the past three years, he's served on the NCAA Central Region Championships committee, a select group of coaches and administrators from the region's members who dissect each team's data to determine the NCAA Tournament field.

“Now, we just have to convince a new committee with more Southern school's involved in the process that the Northern Sun is in fact equitable. That, along with having almost twice as many teams for the same number of tournament spots makes it exponentially more difficult for everyone – not just us, not just the NSIC, but all 39 teams.”

The new dynamics start with the expanded Northern Sun, with the two new teams pushing the league to a 15-team baseball conference. Combined with the increase from 13 to 15 teams, the NSIC Tournament field is increase by two teams from a six-team field to an eight-team tournament.

That change is perhaps the most impactful change for McKenzie's team, based on the team goals.

“Making the NSIC Tournament is our first goal as a team. Certainly making the NCAA Tournament is a goal, but if we don't even make the conference tournament then it won't matter. It's been proven by us, St. Cloud State and Augustana – 30-plus wins doesn't equal an NCAA Tournament appearance, it doesn't even mean an NSIC Tournament appearance.”

“But we've proven in the past that if we can just get to the NSIC Tournament, we can win it.”

And getting there just got statistically much more likely. Prior to SCSU, Augie, Minnesota Duluth and Minnesota State joining or re-joining the conference, two-thirds of the teams in the conference made the NSIC Tournament in a nine team league. And going back a little further, six out of seven teams made the tournament before Upper Iowa and the University of Mary joined the conference.

But for the last four years, that percentage slipped to less than half – 46.2% to be exact – qualified for the league's tournament.

The 2013 rate will be back above half (53.3%) which is still a challenging figure compared to the league's history, but an important increase with a growing and improving baseball conference.

“The eight team tournament is a good concept with 15 teams in the league. It didn't seem right to have a tournament with only six teams getting in with a 15-team league. With expansion, I'm glad to see it's expanded. With an unbalanced schedule and playing teams a different number of times or not at all, the tournament is the logical way to settle the league's automatic qualifier,” said McKenzie.

While statistically the odds of reaching the conference tournament improved significantly, the level of competition will be raised as well. Last year, for example, Concordia split two games with Sioux Falls. That same USF team also split a four game series with RMAC member Regis University, played competitively with Missouri Southern and Pittsburg State of the MIAA, and beat Minnesota State and Augustana once each. They also took three of four from Minot State, a team that also played competitively against a challenging schedule.

Halfway through each team's first year in the conference, they've had mixed results in varying sports but past history should prove that each team will be competitive immediately. The last schools to move up to the NSIC (as opposed to the lateral NCC-to-NSIC migration) were Upper Iowa and University of Mary. In 21 meetings since 2004 against Upper Iowa, Concordia holds an 11-10 mark, while in 19 meetings since 2007 against U-Mary, Concordia is 19-3 but that includes 13-straight Concordia wins after the series started 3-3 during the 2007 and 2008 seasons when Concordia was an NSIC power.

“The NSIC is now considered one of the best leagues in the nation, period.”